自由贸易试点区政策对劳动力市场的影响 ——来自中国的准自然实验设计

• 영문명: The Impact of Pilot Free Trade Zone Policy on the Labor Market : A Quasi-Natural Experiment from China
• 발행기관: 대한중국학회
• 저자명: 杨晓宇(Xiao-Yu Yang) 张荷(He Zhang) 李琴(Qin Li)
• 간행물 정보: 『중국학(구중국어문론집)』第91輯, 485~510쪽, 전체 26쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 기타인문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.06.30

국문 초록

As a pilot initiative of an important industrial policy, the Pilot Free Trade Zone (PFTZ) provides a valuable opportunity to examine its impact on the labor market. This paper evaluates the employment effects of PFTZs using a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, based on data from 257 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2019. The results show that the establishment of PFTZs has significantly promoted employment growth, with varying effects across different batches of PFTZs. Among them, the Shanghai PFTZ remains the core of this policy experiment. Additionally, the implementation of PFTZs has led to significant shifts in employment structure, characterized by a decline in secondary sector employment and an increase in tertiary sector employment. Further analysis reveals that employment growth is particularly notable in sub-sectors such as information and computer services, public administration, and environmental utilities. Overall, our findings demonstrate the positive role of government-led industrial policies in promoting economic development and provide valuable insights for future policy design. Policy evaluation, labor, employment, staggered Difference-in-Differences, heterogeneity analysis

영문 초록

自由贸易试验区（Pilot Free Trade Zone，PFTZ）作为一项重要的产业政策试点， 对劳动力市场的影响值得关注。本文基于2010至2019年中国257个地级市的数据，采用异 质交错双重差分（staggered Difference-in-Differences, DID）方法，评估PFTZ对就业 市场的影响。研究结果表明，PFTZ的设立显著推动了就业增长，不同批次的PFTZ在就 业创造方面存在差异，其中上海PFTZ仍然是该政策试点的核心。此外，PFTZ的设立导 致就业结构发生显著变化，表现为第二产业就业减少，而第三产业就业增加。进一步分析 发现，信息和计算机服务、公共行政以及环境公用事业等子行业的就业增长尤为显著。总 体而言，本文的研究结果表明，政府主导的产业政策在促进中国经济发展方面发挥了积极 作用，并为未来政策制定提供了经验借鉴。

목차

1. 引文

2. 研究背景及假设

3. 实证方法

4. 数据和变量

5. 实证过程

6. 结论

参考文献

키워드

정책 평가 노동 고용 계단식 이중차분법 이질성 분석 Policy evaluation Labor Employment Staggered difference-indifferences Heterogeneity 政策评估 劳动和就业 交错双重差分 异质性分析