Assessing Continuity and Change: Transactional Diplomacy in Trump’s Middle East Policy Across Two Terms

• 발행기관: 한국중동학회
• 저자명: Hassan Geon
• 간행물 정보: 『한국중동학회논총』제46권 제2호, 1~37쪽, 전체 37쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.09.30

국문 초록

This study examines the continuity and transformation in U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East under Donald Trump’s leadership, spanning both his first and second presidential terms. It aims to evaluate whether Trump’s return to office in 2025 reinforces previous strategic patterns or introduces substantive shifts in regional engagement. Using a qualitative comparative design grounded in neoclassical realism, the research analyzes four key domains: Iran containment, Arab-Israeli normalization, U.S. military posture, and energy diplomacy. Data is drawn from policy documents, official statements, and public opinion surveys. Findings reveal that Trump’s foreign policy remains consistently transactional, characterized by coercive economic tools, elite-centered diplomacy, and strategic retrenchment. The renewed maximum pressure campaign on Iran continues to inflict economic damage but fails to alter Tehran’s regional behavior. Similarly, while Arab-Israeli normalization advances through elite deals, public resistance, particularly in Saudi Arabia limits their legitimacy. U.S. troop levels remain stable, reflecting a minimalist deterrence strategy, and energy diplomacy intensifies through direct engagement with OPEC+ members. The study concludes that Trump’s Middle East approach prioritizes short-term strategic gains over long-term regional stability, raising concerns about sustainability and normative leadership. These findings contribute to ongoing debates on the durability and consequences of transactional diplomacy.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Methods

Ⅲ. Results

Ⅳ. Discussion

Ⅴ. Conclusion

Bibliography

키워드

U.S. Foreign Policy Middle East Transactional Diplomacy Donald Trump