特朗普第二任期的关税政策对亚太地区主要经济体产业关联的影响研究

• 영문명: A study on the impact of Trump's tariff policy in his second term on the industrial linkages of major economies in the Asia-Pacific region
• 발행기관: 경희대학교 국제지역연구원
• 저자명: Chunji XUAN Chengshan ZHU
• 간행물 정보: 『아태연구』제32권 제2호, 119~142쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 사회과학일반
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.06.30

국문 초록

Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, 2025, and the Trump 2.0 period officially began, and the global “tariff war” began again. From the perspective of regional value chains, this paper studies the changes in industrial linkages of major economies in the Asia-Pacific region from 2007 to 2023 through the multi-regional input-output table introduced by Asian development, and uses the input-output analysis method to study the changes in the industrial linkages of major economies in the Asia-Pacific region from 2007 to 2023, and further demonstrates the impact of Trump's “tariff war” on the regional value chain in the Asia-Pacific region. The empirical results show that the implementation effect of the tariff policy in the Trump 2.0 period will be smaller than that in the Trump 1.0 period, that is, it is difficult to achieve the goal of “de-sinicization” in the international industrial chain and the return of the US manufacturing industry expected by Trump, and it will increase the unnecessary losses of American consumers.

영문 초록

特朗普于2025年1月20日宣誓就任第47任美国总统，特朗普2.0时期正式开始，全球范围的“关税战”再次打响。本文从区域价值链的角度出发，通过亚洲开发引开的多区域投入产出表，运用投入产出分析法，研究2007-2023年亚太地区主要经济体的产业关联变化，进一步论证特朗普再一次高举关税政策发起“关税战”，会对亚太地区的区域价值链造成哪些影响。实证结果证明，特朗普2.0时期的关税政策相比于特朗普1.0时期的关税政策的实施效果会更加小，即很难达到特朗普预期的在国际产业链上“去中国化”以及推动美国制造业回流的目的，并且会增加美国消费者的无谓损失。

목차

Ⅰ. 引言与文献综述

Ⅱ. 理论分析与研究假设

Ⅲ. 数据、变量与模型

Ⅳ. 实证结果分析

Ⅴ. 结论与启示

参考文献

키워드

Donald Trump industrial linkages tariffs the Asia-Pacific region electrical and optical equipment 关税政策 区域价值链 产业关联 亚太地区 电气和光学设备