미국 주식투자 총잔액이 서울 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향 연구

• 영문명: A study on the impact of U.S stock investment balance on Seoul apartment prices
• 발행기관: 한국주거환경학회
• 저자명: 채상욱(Sang Wook CHAE) 최민섭(Min Seob CHOI)
• 간행물 정보: 『주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집)』제23권 제2호 (통권 제68호), 61~72쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.06.30

국문 초록

This study empirically investigates the relationship between Korean investors' U.S. stock holdings and the apartment price trends in Seoul, South Korea, with a particular focus on the period after 2017. Using monthly time-series data from 2017 to 2024, the analysis employs log-differenced apartment price indices and first-differenced U.S. stock balances to ensure stationarity. The study applies linear regression, Granger causality tests, VAR modeling, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition.The results show that increases in U.S. stock holdings significantly and positively affect apartment price growth in both Seoul and its southeastern region, with time-lagged effects of 2 to 3 months. Specifically, a 1 billion USD increase in U.S. stock holdings leads to an average monthly increase of approximately 0.0841 percentage points in Seoul apartment price returns. Granger causality and VAR results confirm that U.S. stock investments precede and help explain short-term fluctuations in real estate prices. The variance decomposition further indicates that up to 99% of the three-month forecast error variance in apartment prices can be attributed to changes in U.S. stock holdings. These findings highlight the growing influence of non-household financial income—particularly stock investment returns—on housing market dynamics in Korea. The study concludes that the interplay between financial markets and real estate prices has become increasingly important, suggesting that monetary policy and asset market trends must be considered in housing policy design. However, the study acknowledges limitations in variable scope, regional coverage, and structural modeling, pointing to the need for further multi-factor and behavior-based research.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 및 차별성

Ⅲ. 분석모형

Ⅳ. 실증 분석

Ⅴ. 결론 및 연구의 한계

참고문헌

키워드

미국주식 투자 아파트 가격 환율 US Stock Investment Apartment Price Vector Autoregreesion (VAR) Exchange Rate