거시경제의 변화가 주택미분양에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Factors Affecting Unsold house in the Changes of Macro-economic Variables
• 발행기관: 한국주거환경학회
• 저자명: 강경애(Kang, Kyeong Ae) 김종진(Kim, Jong Jin)
• 간행물 정보: 『주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집)』住居環境 제15권 제2호 (통권 제36호), 193~207쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.07.30

영문 초록

The purpose of the study is to analyze macroeconomic variables that affect the unsold apartments-making using VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). In doing so, 5 macroeconomic variables(economic growth, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, consumer price and M2) are used. The results are as follows; First, it is found that the unsold apartments is mainly influenced by M2 and interest rate. Among them, the M2 is most sensitive to the unsold apartments. So it is considered that If the amount of money is increased, the number of unsold apartments will decrease. However, as the global economy recovers, if the policy for monetary expansion is relaxed, the number of unsold new apartments will increase. Second, it is found that the unsold house is sensitively responsed by the interest rate. If the interest rate is lowered, even if you purchase the house after receiving the big stock, the profit rate will improve. In September 2014, the government relaxed the mortgage approval ratio (LTV) and the total debt-to-equity ratio (DTI) to 70% and 60%, respectively, in order to revitalize the real estate market. As a result, the number of unsold apartments nationwide has significantly decreased in 2014. However, as the US interest rate hike is expected, domestic interest rates are likely to rise. If the interest rate is raised, the interest repayment burden will increase, which will lead to a decrease in demand for home purchase, which will increase the number of unsold new apartments. Finally, in the case of economic growth rate, exchange rate and consumer price index, this study shows that it does not affect the unsold apartments.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

II. 미분양 주택 현황 및 선행연구고찰

Ⅲ. 미분양주택 결정모형분석결과

Ⅳ. 결론 및 시사점

참 고 문 헌

키워드

미분양아파트 거시경제변수 벡터오차수정모형 Unsold Apartments Macroeconomic variables VECM(Vector Error Correction Model)