Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations

• 발행기관: 경희대학교 국제지역연구원
• 저자명: 서현준(HyunJun Seo)
• 간행물 정보: 『아태연구』제32권 제3호, 71~118쪽, 전체 48쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 사회과학일반
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.09.30

국문 초록

오늘날 중국-러시아 관계는 동맹 관계로 볼 수 있는가? 본고는 최근 논의되는 것과 같이 2020년대 현재 두 국가가 밀월 관계를 넘어 실제로 동맹 관계를형성하고 있는지 비판적으로 탐구한다. 우선 중-러 관계에 대한 기존 문헌을검토하고 그 한계를 특정한다. 다음으로 이론적 검토와 이를 뒷받침하는 대표적인 역사적 사례를 바탕으로 “굳건한 동맹 (Enduring Alliance)”과 “경쟁적연합 (Competitive Coalition)”을 구분하는 조건을 탐구한다. 사례 연구에서는 “역사적 발전 (Historical Development),” “경제관계 (Economic Connections),” “군사관계 (Military Relations)” 세 가지 주요 영역에서 중-러 관계를 분석한다. 사례 분석 결과, 중국과 러시아는 미국이라는 공통의 위협에 직면하여 상당히 밀접한 관계를 형성하는 것처럼 보이지만, 굳건한 동맹관계에 필요한조건을 완전히 충족하지 못하는 한편, 양국 관계가 “불안정성 (Instability),” “일시성 (Temporariness),” “근본적인 불신 (Fundamental Distrust)”으로 특징지어지는 것을 알 수 있다. 따라서 본고는 현대 중-러 관계는 “굳건한 동맹” 이 아닌, “경쟁적 연합”으로 설명하는 것이 보다 현실에 부합하는 분석임을 주장한다.

영문 초록

This paper examines China-Russia relations as of the mid-2020s. It first reviews the existing literature on China-Russia relations and clarifies their limitations. Next, it explores the conditions that differentiate a “long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership,” which is indicative of “an enduring alliance,” from an “unstable, temporary, and essentially distrusting partnership,” which represents “a competitive coalition.” As for the case study, it investigates China-Russia relations across three key domains (i.e., historical development, economic connections, and military relations) to determine whether they meet the criteria for an enduring alliance, as often argued in previous research. The following analysis reveals that although the two countries appear to form increasingly closer ties in the face of a common threat (i.e., the U.S), they do not fully satisfy the conditions necessary for a long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership. Instead, their relationship is largely characterized by instability, temporariness, and fundamental distrust. Consequently, it concludes that contemporary China-Russia relations are better described as “competitive coalition,” rather than as an enduring alliance.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. Analytical Framework

IV. Case Studies

V. Analysis

VI. Conclusion

References

키워드

중-러 관계 강대국 경쟁 역사적 발전 경제 관계 군사 관계 China-Russia Relations Great Power Competition Historical Development Economic Connections Military Relations

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