An Analysis of Decision-making in US Withdrawal from Afghanistan from the Perspective of Prospect Theory

• 발행기관: YIXIN 출판사
• 저자명: Galebinge
• 간행물 정보: 『International Academic Tribune』Vol.1 No.2, 42~51쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 교육학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2024.11.30

국문 초록

This paper analyzes the decision-making process behind the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 through the lens of Prospect Theory, a framework that explains decision-making under conditions of risk. It examines how U.S. President Joe Biden’s shifting reference points influenced his policy choices during the withdrawal, particularly as he moved from a calculated, phased withdrawal to a rapid military disengagement. Drawing on primary sources, including government reports and Biden’s public statements, the paper tests two hypotheses: first, that a change in Biden’s reference points led to shifts in policy preferences, and second, that the perception of operating in a domain of loss increased Biden’s risk acceptance. The findings indicate that while Biden initially adopted risk-averse strategies in the domain of gains, his decision to rapidly withdraw — despite the worsening security situation — reflected loss aversion rather than risk-seeking behavior.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Background

Ⅲ. Theory and Hypotheses

Ⅳ. Methodology

V. Discussion on Influencing Factors and Formation Mechanisms

Ⅵ. Discussion and Conclusion

키워드

U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan Prospect Theory Risk decision-making Military withdrawal

참고문헌

• The White House
• The White House
• The White House
• Department of Defense
• International Studies Quarterly
• Econometrica
• Henry A. Kissinger
• Reuters
• Synthese
• Contemporary Security Policy