[특집]대만위기, 미-중관계, 그리고 동북아 안보

• 영문명: Power Relations between the U.S. and China on the Taiwan Crisis and Its Security Implications on East Asia and the Korean Peninsula
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 김재철 박인휘
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제33호, 7~40쪽, 전체 34쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.03.31

영문 초록

This research project is to analyze the contingency of the East Asian regional security order and its impact on the Korean Peninsula due to the change of power-balance between the United States and China in case of the crisis in the Taiwan strait. Taiwan's insistence on her national independence has created and recently increased the political tension with the mainland China. Taiwan's ambition for independence is becoming stronger while configurating their national identity in the process of the politicization of domestic political reasons. As a result China is putting their foot down to use force to confront Taiwanese movement. The possibility of military dispute in the Taiwan strait is escalating due to the interaction between China and Taiwan. There are three main reasons why the Taiwan crisis centers on our security concern from the perspective of Korea's national interest. Firstly, what will be the China' counterplot if Taiwan declare her independence. Putting in a strategic way, our concern is weather China will actually use military force, and if they do in what way the crisis will proceed. Secondly, our interest focuses on, up to what level the U.S. government militarily would intervene when China uses military force against Taiwan's will of independence. Will both countries decide to accept the consequence of a full-scale of riot? Lastly, considering all the scenarios our national security policy needs prepare full scale policy options including the worst case. Because Taiwan crisis and the possible change of power balance between the US and China as a consequence should bring a serious implication in Northeast Asian security terrain. The research presents that the possibility of China's use of force is high when Taiwan announces her independence. None of the Chinese leaders will be willing to accept criticism of loosing Taiwan while the nationalistic sentiment is reaching the climax. Besides, if China tolerate Taiwan's independence, it would stimulate a series of independent movements in areas such as Uighur, Tibet and other multiracial groups which could bring about loosing control over the whole China's territorial influence. Therefore China has no choice but to use force against Taiwan in case of Taiwanese independence movement. However, this does not mean China will rush into full-scale warfare. China will attempt to give 'lesson' to Taiwan with small-scale of military operation while preventing the intervention of the U.S. But if Taiwan succeeds to resist and the U.S. interfere, the small-scale operation could turn into full-scale riot. The U.S. will not have choice but to interfere if military conflict in Taiwan strait threat the current status of Taiwan. Strategically, the U.S. will interpret the Taiwan's subordination to China being a threat to their status of power-balancer in East Asia in which the U.S. has enjoyed as a regional hegemonic state. Of course, the U.S. decision to intervene the crisis will affect China's decision making process. China is trying to maintain military force that could threat Taiwan on case of the U.S. intervene. But, it seems hard for China to attain the required amount of military force in the recent future. For that reason, China may pursue the alternative strategy to hinder Taiwan's independence through cooperation with the American government. Furthermore, China is inducing the U.S. to restrain the independence of Taiwan by increasing its value to the U.S. There are possibilities that the U.S. and Japan will collaborate according to the “New Guideline” if military conflict occurs. But, Korea might have a difficult time supporting the military cooperation of US-Japan alliance. The strategic significance of peace in Taiwan strait to us is of less importance than to that of the U.S. or Japan. In addition to that,

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 대만위기의 원인과 발전 양상

Ⅲ. 미-중관계의 전개: 2개의 시나리오

Ⅳ. 미-중관계와 동북아 안보질서

Ⅴ. 대만해협 위기와 한국의 안보환경: 결론을 대신하여

키워드

Crisis in the Taiwan Straits U.S.-China Relations Northeast Asian Security