글로벌 회사채 스프레드에 대한 경기요인 영향력 분석

• 영문명: A Study on the Impact of Business Cycle on Corporate Credit Spreads
• 발행기관: 강원대학교 경영경제연구소
• 저자명: 최재용
• 간행물 정보: 『아태비즈니스연구』제14권 제3호, 221~240쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.09.30

영문 초록

Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread’s countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle’s impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle’s sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 및 가설 도출

Ⅲ. 분석자료 및 연구방법론

Ⅳ. 분석 결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

Corporate Bond Credit Spread Business Cycle Credit Cycle