계절 아리마 모형을 이용한 관광객 예측 -경북 영덕지역을 대상으로-

• 영문명: Forecasting of Yeongdeok Tourist by Seasonal ARIMA Model
• 발행기관: 한국농촌지도학회
• 저자명: 손은호(Eun Ho Son) 박덕병(Duk Byeong Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『농촌지도와 개발』19권 2호, 302~321쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 생활/식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.06.30

영문 초록

The study uses a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the number of tourists of Yeongdeok in an uni-variable time series. The monthly data for time series were collected ranging from 2006 to 2011 with some variation between on-season and off-season tourists in Yeongdeok county. A total of 72 observations were used for data analysis. The forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was found the most appropriate one. Results showed that the number of tourists was 10,974 thousands in 2012 and 13,465 thousands in 2013, It was suggested that the grasping forecast model is very important in respect of how experts in tourism development in Yeongdeok county, policy makers or planners would establish strategies to allocate service in Yeongdeok tourist destination and provide tourism facilities efficiently.

키워드

관광수요 Tourism Demand 계절아리마모형 Seasonal ARIMA Model 예측 Forecasting