주택가격 변동에 대한 주택시장 진입세대의 조절효과 분석

• 영문명: Analysis of the Moderating Effect of Housing Market First Entry Generation on Housing Price Fluctuations
• 발행기관: 한국비교정부학회
• 저자명: 김성우(Sung-Woo Kim) 정건섭(Kyoun-Sup Chung)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국비교정부학보』제29권 제1호, 161~182쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 행정학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.03.31

국문 초록

(Purpose) The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the role of population changes among those aged 30 to 40, who are entering the housing market, in terms of the moderating variable in the relationship between housing market supply and demand factors and prices. (methodology/approach) We analyzed previous studies on the relationship between population and the housing market; and we are also diagnosing the population shrinkage(the population decline) by the regions. Additionally, we categorized the influencing factors of apartment price fluctuations into demand and supply sectors, and established a panel model to examine the moderating effect of the population aged 30 to 40. The moderation effect was tested through the change in the coefficient of determination (R²). (Findings/ Research implications) The findings of this study highlight the significant moderating effect of the population aged 30 to 40, who are entering the housing market, on the relationship between apartment price fluctuations and factors such as interest rates, unsold inventory, and move-in units. The detailed implications of this study are as follows: Firstly, when examining the population shrinkage rate of individuals aged 30 to 40 by the regions, it was found that all regions, except for Gyeonggi, Chungnam, and Jeju, exhibited a decline in this population group, with Busan and Jeonnam showing particularly high rates of decline. Secondly, the moderating effect on the population aged 30 to 40 showed a statistically significant buffering interaction effect in the relationship between housing mortgage interest rates and apartment sales prices as well as rental prices. However, no moderating effect was observed in relation to GDP. Thirdly, when it comes to the supply, the population aged 30 to 40 exhibited a mitigating moderating effect on rental price changes resulting from increases in unsold inventory and move-in units. In contrast, regarding changes in sales prices, the null hypothesis was rejected at the 0.05 significance level, indicating no moderating effect.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구의 고찰

Ⅲ. 분석모형

Ⅳ. 분석결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

조절효과분석 패널모형 인구 위축 아파트 매매가격 아파트 전세가격 Moderating Effect Population Shrinkage APT Price APT Jeonse Price