[특집] 한반도 위기사태 유형과 효과적 위기관리

• 영문명: Effective Crisis Management of Impending Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 한용섭
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제17호, 6~42쪽, 전체 37쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1999.12.31

영문 초록

Will crisis occur in the Korean Peninsula? This is the most frequently raised question nowadays when North Korea is assessed to be likely to collapse under the worsening economic and systemic situations. If North Korea is likely to create situations which might be developed into a crisis where South Korea and the United States should challenge those North Korean provocations, what shape will the crisis take and how will South Korea resolve it effectively? Regarding the plausible courses of actions to be taken by North Korea in the future, two major scenarios are being drawn up: war scenario and crises shot of war. War scenario is the most frequently envisioned one among all the relevant scenarios regarding North Korea as North Korea is experiencing total system failure nowadays. An all-out war as a result of the North Korean leader's miscalculation is the one that is the most worrisome. It is, of course, controversial whether or not North Korea will actually initiate a war despite its most dilificult economic situations. Based on the low possibility of the conventional war, some experts adds that Pyongyang will likely start a war with chemical and biological weapons because chances for North Korea's win in the conventional warfare are so low that Pyongyang has no option but to resort to the unconventional warfare. In addition, various scenarios for crises short of war are predicted. Among them, the most dangerous is Pyongyang's possible provocation in the process of its internal political tunnoil. Pyongyang may attempt to turn its internal crisis into an external opportunity where they can run South Korea's life at risk out of desperation. Although it is not likely that Pyongyang will win the war, they may inflict an enonnous damage on Seoul as well as on North Korea, in return. Then, the damage will be too great to recover within a foreseeable future even if Korea is unified under South Korea. Pyongyang may try to occupy islands in the western sea near the DMZ while insisting on the return of North Koreans who fled from North Korea for the pursuit of food and freedom. During the military engagement, South Korean armed forces may try to counterattack North Korean armed forces not to allow the North to occupy the islands in the western sea. This is another crisis scenario whose consequences are not so trivial as to overlook. Or the North may attempt to assassinate South Korea's top political figures so as to create a turmoil inside South Korea, while covering up the fact that they have done. Such kind of terrorist act will add to an internal instability inside South Korea, which will in turn, to the North Korean leader, provide an opportunity to the North Korean leader to play South Korea's vu1nerability to his favor. Therefore, it is important for the South Korean Government to prepare against those crisis scenarios beforehand. To deter and prevent a North Korean attack, South Korea will need security alliance with the United States. Thus, bilateral alliance between Seoul and Washington is a requirement even in the post-Cold War unless North Korea explicitly abandons a military option. To augment deterrence, South Korea's cooperation with China is significant at the time when North Korea may attempt to use the military option out of desperation. To plan against the possibility of crisis short of a major war, cooperative mechanism among South Korea and countries in the region is required In this regard, four party talks to address the lack of security regime on the Korean Peninsula had been proposed and now, await a full operation with North Korea's full participation. To deal with North Korea's collapse prudently, constructive engagement by South Korea and regional countries is demanded rather than containment.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 위기관리의 이론적 고찰

Ⅲ. 한반도 전쟁 시나리오

Ⅳ. 장차 한번도 위기 유형

Ⅴ. 한국의 위기 관리 행태의 특성과 문제점

Ⅵ. 위기관리 개선 방향

Ⅶ. 결론

Summary

참고문헌