전세보증금 미반환 이슈가 시장 국면별 전세가격에 미치는 영향 - 위계적 구조 기반 분석을 중심으로

• 영문명: The Impact of Jeonse Deposit Non-Return on Jeonse Prices Across Market Phases : A Hierarchical Linear Modeling Approach
• 발행기관: 한국주거환경학회
• 저자명: 하석현(Seok-Hyun HA) 김진우(Jin-Woo KIM) 김승희(Seung-Hee KIM)
• 간행물 정보: 『주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집)』제23권 제3호 (통권 제69호), 135~158쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.09.30

국문 초록

This study empirically examines the impact of Jeonse deposit non-return risk on Jeonse prices in 66 municipal jurisdictions of the Seoul metropolitan area, distinguishing between rising and declining market phases. Jeonse, a unique Korean rental system, faces growing risks due to landlords’ liquidity issues, price volatility, and information asymmetry. Using 622,116 multi-unit housing transactions from the past five years, the study applies two-way ANOVA, intra-class correlation, and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). In the rising phase, the Jeonse-to-sale ratio showed a significant negative effect on prices, while warranty accident numbers were negative but not significant. Regional heterogeneity was observed in random slope models. Tenant right registration applications and valid registrations had positive or stabilizing effects, suggesting institutional safeguards supported prices. In the declining phase, the Jeonse-to-sale ratio remained negative, warranty accidents were negative but regionally variable, and valid registrations had significant negative effects, reflecting demand contraction. News article counts were not significant in either phase. Findings reveal that the same factor can produce opposite effects depending on the market phase, highlighting structural complexity and regional heterogeneity. Policy implications call for region-based risk management and market structure improvements beyond damage compensation measures.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 이론 및 선행연구 고찰

Ⅲ. 위계적 구조 기반의 분석체계

Ⅳ. 실증 분석

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

전세보증금 미반환 전세가격 수도권 전세시장 연립·다세대주택 위계적 선형모형 Non-return of the Jeonse deposit Jeonse prices Metropolitan area Jeonse market Multi-Unit Housing Hierarchical Linear Model