[특집] 한반도 군비통제에의 새로운 접근

• 영문명: New Approaches to Korean Arms Control
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 현인택 최강
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제25호, 6~46쪽, 전체 41쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2002.07.31

영문 초록

Inter-Korean arms control will be quite different from other arms control cases. First, there is a conceptional gap between the two Koreas regarding the threat: that is, while South Korea is primarily concerned with North Korea's threat, North Korea is mainly concerned with the US threat. Second, there is big difference between the two Koreas in terms of military capabilities. While South Korea's military capability is primarily conventional. North Korea has already passed the breakpoint by acquiring WMD capabilities. Third, inter-Korean arms control is inevitably connected with the issue of USFK and combined defense system, Fourth, inter-Korean arms control will be greatly affected by regional strategic landscape, Fifth, political utility of armed forces and military assets will impede the progress in tension reduction and arms control due to the regime characteristics and related internal constraints. By taking into account the above factors, we can say that the possibility of success in arms control on the Korean Peninsular is not so bright. It does not necessarily mean the impossibility. Rather it means difficulties. Furthermore, South and North Korea have quite different approaches and proposals regarding arms control. North Korea has demanded four things: withdrawal of USFK: conclusion of peace treaty between the US and North Korea: ban on the combined military exercises with foreign troops: and ban on the introduction of new weapons. Over the years. North Korean proposals have become more sophisticated by including some CBMs. But the feasibility is very low and their proposal must be interpreted within the political context. South Korea has relatively new to arms control. By reviewing European experience. South Korea has adopted 3 stage approach: CBM ~ arms limits ~ arms reduction. Under the current situation. it is difficult to find common ground for serious arms control talks. The US has similar posture to that of South Korea. But she is very much concerned with any issue related to the status of the USFK. And the United States wants to separate the issue of USFK from inter-Korean arms control. Otherwise. it wants to be involved in discussing conventional threat reduction. Another factor. which will influence the course of event. is the strategic situation of Northeast Asia: two things can be identified. One is that all Northeast Asian countries are modernizing their armed forces. This will lead to the increasing military density. Second is that fluidity of relations among major powers will increase and. as a result. uncertain and regional instability are very much likely to increase. In other words. no permanent enemy. no permanent friend. Arms control must be used as a tool for achieving stability. In the course. it must be guided by the following objectives: consolidating the ground for comprehensive improvement of inter-Korean relations: expanding South Korea's area of influence: securing military stability between the two Koreas. The first task is to restore the Basic Agreement framework. And. at the same time. basic CBMs can be negotiated and introduced. In the mean time. South Korea should consistently raise its utmost concerns of security such as safety of capital area and way to manage safely the status quo. This must be implemented by phased approach. - Stage for institutionalizing dialogue: high-level mil-to-mil talks. preliminary CBMs. creating common understanding. military measure to support exchange and cooperation, US-North Korean talks over WMD - Stage for tension reduction and confidence-building: resolution of WMD issues. transparency measures, communication measures, - Stage for coexistence and cooperation for peace: arms limitations, budget freeze, security of capital area, compliance to international regimes, more intrusive CBMs and transparency measures - Stage for arms reduction: reduction of offensive weapons based on reasonable sufficiency

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 한반도 군비통제의 실체적 진실

Ⅲ. 한반도 군비통제의 특성

Ⅳ. 북한의 한반도군비 통제에 대한 기본입장

Ⅴ. 한반도 군비통제의 실천방안

Ⅵ. 결론:한반도 군비통제의 향후 추진 구도