구제역과 돈육 가격 관계

• 영문명: (The Impact of FMD on the Relationship among Pork Prices)
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 김민경(Min Kyoung Kim) 구경민(Kyung Min Koo)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 40권 3호, 592~614쪽, 전체 23쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2013.09.30

영문 초록

This study analyzes the impact of external shock, FMD (foot-mouth-disease), on both long- and short- run relationship among pork prices in marketing channel. The data employed in this study are price paid by framers, wholesale price, consumer price of the period from January 1997 to December 2012, which includes FMD outbreaks in the years of 2000, 2002, 2010 and 2011. Two different methods were employed to analyze the (non)stationarity of data: (1) ADF, PP, and KPSS without considering FMD impact and (2)Zivot-Andrews test and Lee-Strazicich test to consider FMD impact. The pork prices were found to be nonstationary and FMD did not significantly affect nonstationarity of the data. Johansen cointegration test, VECM (vector error correction model) and Ganger-causality tests were conducted to examine the long- and short-run relationship among the prices when external shock, FMD, occurred. In the short-run relationship, wholesale price played a leading role, as was confirmed in other studies. In the long-run, however, consumer prices played a leading role affecting prices paid by farmers and wholesale prices. This might be due to both Handon and pork industries have been changing to adopt the needs for consumers and the importance of marketing channel in dealing with uncertainty.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 한돈시장 수급 및 구조

Ⅲ. 구조변화를 고려한 단위근 검정 방법

Ⅳ. 자료 및 분석결과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

참 고 문 헌

키워드

Pork Prices FMD Zivot-Andrews Test Lee-Strazicich Test Johansen Cointegration VECM Granger Causality