Effects of Macroeconomic Conditions and External Shocks for Port Business: Forecasting Cargo Throughput of Busan Port Using ARIMA and VEC Models

• 발행기관: 한국항해항만학회
• 저자명: Hyung-Sik Nam Enrico D’agostini Dal-Won Kang
• 간행물 정보: 『한국항해항만학회지』제46권 제5호, 449~457쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 해양공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.10.31

영문 초록

The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

키워드

Busan container throughput ARIMA seasonal model invention model vector error correction model impulse response function cointegration test