청소년 건강행태 온라인 조사를 통한 청소년기 자살시도 예측 모델 개발

• 영문명: Development of Prediction Model for Suicide Attempts Using the Korean Youth Health Behavior Web-Based Survey in Korean Middle and High School Students
• 발행기관: 대한신경정신의학회
• 저자명: 김영근 우성일 한상우 이연정 김민재 진현서 김지연 황재욱
• 간행물 정보: 『신경정신의학』제62권 제3호, 95~101쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 정신과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.08.31

영문 초록

Objectives Assessing the risks of youth suicide in educational and clinical settings is crucial. Therefore, this study developed a machine learning model to predict suicide attempts using the Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS). Methods KYRBWS is conducted annually on Korean middle and high school students to assess their health-related behaviors. The KYRBWS data for 2021, which showed 1206 adolescents reporting suicide attempts out of 54848, was split into the training (n=43878) and test (n=10970) datasets. Thirty-nine features were selected from the KYRBWS questionnaire. The balanced accuracy of the model was employed as a metric to select the best model. Independent validations were conducted with the test dataset of 2021 KYRBWS (n=10970) and the external dataset of 2020 KYRBWS (n=54948). The clinical implication of the prediction by the selected model was measured for sensitivity, specificity, true prediction rate (TPR), and false prediction rate (FPR). Results Balanced bag of histogram gradient boosting model has shown the best performance (balanced accuracy=0.803). This model shows 76.23% sensitivity, 83.08% specificity, 10.03% TPR, and 99.30% FPR for the test dataset as well as 77.25% sensitivity, 84.62% specificity, 9.31% TPR, and 99.45% FPR for the external dataset, respectively. Conclusion These results suggest that a specific machine learning model can predict suicide attempts among adolescents with high accuracy.

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키워드

Suicide attempt Adolescent Machine learning Prediction