글로벌 공급망 재편이 중간재 무역에 미치는 영향: 국가 간 패널분석을 중심으로

• 영문명: The Impact of Global Supply Chain Restructuring on Intermediate Goods Trade: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 이서영(Seo-Young Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제21권 제4호, 319~333쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.08.31

국문 초록

Purpose - This study aims to empirically examine how global supply chain restructuring influences the structure of intermediate goods imports across countries. It specifically investigates whether intensified supply chain pressures, triggered by external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and logistics disruptions, have caused structural changes in international trade patterns. Design/Methodology/Approach - The analysis uses biennial panel data from eight major trading economies (2010-2023) and applies a two-way fixed effects panel regression model. The dependent variable is the share of intermediate goods in total imports. The key independent variable is the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), while GVC participation, real GDP, and the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) serve as control variables. Robustness checks are conducted through interaction terms and alternative model specifications. Findings - The results indicate that higher supply chain pressure significantly reduces the share of intermediate goods imports. Although the control variables show expected signs, they are not statistically significant. The negative effect of GSCPI remains robust across various specifications. Research Implications - The study provides empirical evidence that supply chain disruptions reshape the structure of global trade. By incorporating a dynamic measure of supply chain stress, it offers novel insights into vulnerabilities in global value chains, emphasizing the need for resilience and diversification in sourcing strategies.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 연구모형 및 자료

Ⅳ. 실증분석

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

References

키워드

Global Supply Chain Pressure Global Value Chain Intermediate Goods Trade

참고문헌

• Asian Economic Journal
• NBER Working Paper
• In D. Elms and P. Low (Eds.), Global value chains in a changing world
• Annual Review of Economics
• World Economy
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review
• The Review of Economics and Statistics
• Journal of International Economics
• ECB Occasional Paper Series
• The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
• Journal of International Business Policy
• Journal of Economic Literature
• IMF Working Paper
• International Monetary Fund
• Journal of International Economics
• ECB Working Paper
• Journal of International Trade & Commerce
• Journal of International Business Policy
• The International Journal of Logistics Management
• Journal of International Trade & Commerce
• World Bank
• World Investment Report
• World Development Report