[특집] 북한체제의 변화시 가능한 유형 전망

• 영문명: PROSPECTS FOR CHANGES IN NORTH KOREAN SYSTEM AND SEARCH FOR PATTERNS OF CHANGE
• 발행기관: 한국전략문제연구소
• 저자명: 전인영
• 간행물 정보: 『전략연구』통권 제7호, 70~112쪽, 전체 43쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1996.06.30

영문 초록

The objective of this paper is to examine current North Korea' s crisis situation created by complex and accumulated problems such as economic difficulties and food shortages, and then to examine and evaluate conceivable scenarios or pathways to North Korean reforms or collapse. This paper also attempts to find a desirable and safe pathway to deal with the North Korean socialist system in trouble. South Korea and the major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula worry about a possibility of sudden collapse of North Korea because it can create chaotic and unstable situation in the Northeast Asian region, including the Korean peninsula. Like it or not, many outside specialists express pessimistic views on North Korea's capability to overcome difficulties and to successfully change. For instance, Commander of the U. S. Forces in Korea General Luck, in his testimony at the House of Representative on March 13, stated that the collapse of North Korea is not a matter of probability, but a matter of 'when' and 멻ow? He maintained that due to the deteriorating economic situation in the North, the breakdown of the North Korean socialist system is a foregone conclusion, and the remaining issue is when and how North Korea will collapse. Most specialists on North Korean affairs seem to agree on that North Korea is experiencing serious economic difficulties. But their prospects for the survival and changes in North Korean socialist system and their viewpoints regarding North Korean pattern of change are different.. Western as well as South Korean scholars usually hold pessimistic views about North Korea's future, anticipating early or sudden collapse in the near future, whereas Chinese and Russian specialists maintain relatively optimistic view with regard to North Korea's ability to adapt to changing security environmnet. Despite apparent weakness and signs of collapse, in an uncertain post-cold war era, North Korea so far survived, and it does not show any sign of immediate danger. Domestically, the North Korean leadership and the party effectively wield power and demonstrates firm control over the military organization and the police forces as well as over the people's daily life. It is fair to say that the North Korean socialist system did not lose, albeit weakened, such system capabilities as regulatory and penetrative capabilities, although it suffers from insufficient extractive and distributive performance. North Korea's change is inevitable, but it is not easy to correctly guess how North Korea will be changed. There are many contending pathways to reforms or collapse of North Korea. Julian Birch examines four possible pathways to the end goals: reform initiated from above, bottom up reform, revolution from below, and external intervention. Harding argues that limited reform initiated by the North Korean leadership become more aggressive, and then the system began to decline, leading to ultimate collapse of the system in crisis. Brzezinski suggests, in his book 'Grand Failure' (1989), four phases in the retreat from communism: Communist Totalitarianism(phase 1), Communist Authoritarianism(phase 2), Post-Communist Authoritarianism (phase 3), and Post-Communist Pluralism( phase 4). North Korea rejected and resented Gorbachev style reform from above which soon became uncontrollable. It expresses its concern about Chinses reform, but its leadership has showed misgivings about the undesirable consequences of aggressive Chinese economic reforms and opening. North Korea despised the Hungarian and the Polish reforms, and shocked by the outbreak of the brief Romanian civil war and the followed swift execution of Ceausescu and his wife. North Korean leadership presumably appreciate the necessity of reforms, but radical reform means political risk-taking. North Korea seems determined not to repeat the Gorbachev s mistakes, and it is still reluctant and cautious to apply the Deng' s Chinese reform model. The legacy of Kim Il Sung,

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 낙관적 북한체제 유지론과 비관적 붕괴론

Ⅲ. 북한체제 개혁 필요성 및 유형

Ⅳ. ‘우리식 사회주의’와 중국식 개혁

Ⅴ. 결론

Summary