Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks, Inward FDI and Import on Export Performance: A Cointegration Analysis

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Van Chien NGUYEN Thi Tuyet DO
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 7 No.4, 163~171쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.04.30

영문 초록

The study aims to examine the effects of inward every presence of foreign investment, import, and real exchange rate shocks on export performance in Vietnam. This study employs a time-series sample dataset in the period of 2009 – 2018. All data are collected from the General Statistics Office of Ministry of Planning and Investment in Vietnam, World Development Indicator and Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Vietnam. This study employs the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test and the vector error correction model with the analysis of cointegration. The results demonstrate that a higher value of import significantly accelerates export performance in the short run, but insignificantly generates in the long run. When the volume of registered foreign investment goes up, the export performance will predominantly decrease in the both short run and long run. Historically, countries worldwide are more likely to devaluate their currencies in order to support export performance. According to the study, the exchange rate volatility has an effect on the external trade in the long run but no effect in the short run. Finally, Vietnam‟s export performance converges on its long-run equilibrium by roughly 6.3% with the speed adjustment via a combination of import, every presence of foreign investment, and real exchange rate fluctuations.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data and Methodology

4. Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusions

References

키워드

Cointegration Export Performance Inward FDI Real Exchange Eate Shocks VECM