불확실성을 고려한 농업투자사업의 경제성 분석

• 영문명: An Analysis of Economic Feasibility for Agricultural Investments Considering Uncertain Factors : Using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 구승모 김재홍
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 31권 1호, 18~36쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2004.03.31

영문 초록

Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are widely used indices to evaluate economic performance for various projects as well as agriculture-related projects. These indices, however, generally assumes deterministic assumptions in applying its components or inputs including possible benefits, costs, and discounting rate. Because deterministic models for economic indices hardly reflect various uncertainties regarding its inputs, probabilistic models could be superior alternatives considering future uncertainties or risk, while providing powerful informations for decision-making. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation, which is one of the probabilistic experiments, are introduced to overcome weak points of the traditionally-used deterministic models. The simulation approach is adapted to analyze economic indices including NPV and B/C using the actual cash-flow data and several probabilistic assumptions for Daeho agricultural investment project. The results shows that simulation approach could provide more flexible and definite decision-making information than those of the traditional deterministic approach. Compared to the deterministic models, simulation approach could also have advantages in interpreting results in terms of reducing possibility of biases.

목차

Abstract

I. 서론

II. 전통적인 분석기법 및 확률적 모형의 필요성

III. 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션의 기본 개념

IV. 불확실성을 고려하는 경제성분석의 실예

V. 결론 및 요약

참고문헌

키워드

Economic Feasibility Probabilistic Approach Monte Carlo Simulation