주성분 분석 기반 회귀모형을 활용한 북한 홍수 및 태풍 피해 추정 연구

• 영문명: Flood and Typhoon Damage Estimation in North Korea Using a Principal Component Analysis-Based Regression Model
• 발행기관: 한국방재학회
• 저자명: 이하늘(Haneul Lee) 김경훈(Kyunghun Kim) 백선욱(Seonuk Baek) 윤정환(Junghwan Yun) 박석근(Seok Geun Park) 김형수(Hung Soo Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『2. 한국방재학회 논문집』25권 4호, 179~192쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 기타공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.08.30

국문 초록

본 연구에서는 북한 지역의 홍수 및 태풍 피해를 정량적으로 추정하기 위한 통계 모형을 개발하고 예측 성능을 평가하였다. 북한은 재해로 인한 피해가 반복적으로 발생하고 있음에도 불구하고, 체계적인 피해 추정 체계가 부재한 상황이다. 이에 따라 1993년부터 2018년까지의 피해 통계와 27개 기상관측소의 강수량 및 풍속 자료를 활용하여, 북한 전역을 단일 분석 단위로 하는 피해 추정 모형을 구축하였다. 주성분 회귀 모형은 홍수 피해 추정에서 평균 NRMSE 0.1901, R-squared 42%, 태풍 피해 추정에서 평균 NRMSE 0.3077, R-squared 85%로 일반화 선형모형보다 전반적으로 우수한 성능을 보였다. 본 연구는 제한된 자료 환경에서도 재해 피해를 정량적으로 추정할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하였으며, 향후 재난 대응 체계가 미비한 국가들에도 적용 가능한 사례로 확장될 수 있을 것이다.

영문 초록

A statistical model was developed in this study for a quantitative estimation of the damage caused by floods and typhoons in North Korea, and its predictive performance was evaluated. Despite North Korea experiencing recurring damages due to natural disasters such as floods and typhoons, a systematic damage estimation framework is lacking. Therefore, a damage estimation model was developed by treating the entire territory of North Korea as a single analysis unit, and using damage statistics from 1993 to 2018 along with data on precipitation and wind speed from 27 meteorological stations. The principal component regression model showed overall superior performance compared to a generalized linear model, achieving (a) an average NRMSE of 0.1901 and R-squared of 42% for flood damage estimation, and (b) an average NRMSE of 0.3077 and R-squared of 85% for typhoon damage estimation. This quantitative methodology proposed for estimating disaster damage in data-scarce environments can serve as a model and be applied to other countries facing similar disasters and lacking systematic damage estimation frameworks.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 피해산정을 위한 방법론

3. 홍수와 태풍 피해 및 수문기상 자료 수집

4. 북한 홍수 및 태풍피해 추정모형 개발

5. 결 론

감사의 글

References

키워드

일반화 선형모형 주성분 분석 홍수 및 태풍 피해 Generalized Linear Model Principal Component Analysis Flood and Typhoon Damage

참고문헌

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