국제유가가 GDP에 미치는 비선형적 영향

• 영문명: Nonlinear Impact of Oil Price on Korea GDP
• 발행기관: 강원대학교 경영경제연구소
• 저자명: 박의환(Euihwan Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『아태비즈니스연구』제16권 제1호, 373~387쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.03.31

국문 초록

Purpose - This paper aims to derive policy implications by analyzing the impact of international oil prices on Korea's GDP. Design/methodology/approach - This study analyzed the nonlinear impact of changes in international oil prices on Korea's GDP. Considering the structural characteristic that Korea imports all of its crude oil, data on international oil prices in both Korean won and US dollar terms were utilized. Findings - Using the nonlinear models proposed by Hamilton (1996, 2003) and Charfeddine et al. (2020), the empirical analysis revealed that an increase in international oil prices had a statistically significant negative effect on GDP with a two-quarter lag. In contrast, a decline in oil prices did not show any significant impact on GDP. Notably, the asymmetry in the impact of oil price increases was more pronounced in the analysis using oil prices based on the Korean won, potentially due to overestimation resulting from the use of censored data. These findings were consistently observed even in the adjusted model, underscoring that rising international oil prices negatively affect the macroeconomy through increased production costs, reduced consumption, and diminished investment. Research implications or Originality - This study emphasizes the importance of policy responses to ease economic shocks when oil prices rise, especially if oil prices rise rapidly, specific policy response to alleviate it is required. It suggests that there is a need to take into account the measures to prevent the impact of oil prices due to falling value.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구

Ⅲ. 분석모형 및 활용자료

Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

Oil Price GDP Asymmetry nonlinearity