베이지안 네트워크에 의한 교역조건의 경제적 파급경로 분석

• 영문명: Analyzing the Transmission Mechanism of Terms-of-Trade Using a Bayesian Network
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 전병조(Byoung-Jo Chun)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제20권 제3호, 253~269쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2024.06.30

국문 초록

Purpose - This study aimed to characterize the transmission mechanism through which external economic shocks, represented by the income terms of trade index (ITT), and the net barter terms of trade index (NBTT)spread to the domestic economy through causal relationship analysis. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study used two quantitative analysis methods: a vector error correction model and a Bayesian network to derive an optimal directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure between external economic variables and domestic variables. In particular, this study derived a statistically significant DAG structure. Findings - This study shows that ITT and export price index are parent nodes acting as causal variables among the external variables. The transmission paths of external shocks are driven by these two variables. ITT is a direct causal variable for production, the asset market, and consumption-related variables, and the export price index is a direct causal variable for the producer price index and import price index. Research Implications - The results imply that improved ITT contributes to economic growth mainly through production effect. This study also shows that ITT positively affects the financial and stock markets, but not the real asset markets. Export price index is the major cause of price variables, while ITT has no significant impact on the consumption and price indices.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 기존 연구

Ⅲ. 연구방법론 및 분석 모형

Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

References

키워드

Bayesian Network Directed Acyclic Graph Economic Transmission Channels Income Terms of Trade Index Net Barter Terms of Trade Index