한국 소비자의 기대 인플레이션 결정요인

• 영문명: Determinants of Inflation Expectations of South Korean Consumers
• 발행기관: 강원대학교 경영경제연구소
• 저자명: 안영빈(Young-Bin Ahn)
• 간행물 정보: 『아태비즈니스연구』제14권 제4호, 413~429쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.12.31

국문 초록

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers’ inflation expectations using consumers’ inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll’s (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals’ forecasts play a major role in forming consumers’ inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers’ inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals’ expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers’ inflation expectations. To guide consumers’ inflation expectations based on BOK’s inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals’ forecasts in devising monetary policies.

키워드

Consumer Survey Inflation Expectation Inflation Targeting Professional Forecasts JEL Classifications C12 D12 D84 E31