확률론적 시스템다이내믹스 방법을 활용한 호텔개발사업 재무적 타당성 분석의 주요 영향 변수와 영향력 분석

• 영문명: Analysis of Key Influential Variables and Their Impacts on Hotel Development Project Financial Feasibility Analysis Using Stochastic System Dynamics Method
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 박경렬 최승담
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제37권 제9호, 317~337쪽, 전체 21쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2013.11.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study is to identify major influential variables and their impacts on financial feasibility analysis for hotel development applying the stochastic system dynamics method. To develop a model, 1) the boundary of system model was set and variables that compose the system were determined, 2) Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) which explains the casual relationships among variables was formulated, 3) Stock Flow Diagram(SFD) was developed based on the CLD and 4) SFD model was confirmed through verification of its soundness and objectivity. Finally, confirmed model was applied to the typical hotel development project of Hotel A in order to identify major influential variables and their impacts on feasibility analysis. Variables such as number of employees per guest room, expenses per employee, monthly earnings from ancillary facilities and occupancy rates of ancillary facilities were identified as more influential variable than others. This study shows the usefulness of the stochastic system dynamics model in drawing more influential variables and in reflecting diverse variables and scenarios for financial feasibility analysis for hotel development. To make the model more predictable it is required to conduct consistent research by adopting additional variables and applying developed model to various hotel development projects.

목차

I. 서론

II. 시스템 다이내믹스의 기본 구조와 호텔개발사업에서의 재무적 타당성 분석

III. 호텔개발사업 재무적 타당성 분석 모델 구축

IV. 시뮬레이션 모델(SFD) 활용

V. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

호텔개발사업 확률론적 시스템 다이내믹스 Hotel development project Stochastic system dynamics