실현율(그루버지수, 자기확신지수)을 이용한 관광 수요 예측

• 영문명: Forecasting Tourism Demand Using Feasibility Rates(Gruber and Self-Confidence Indices): The Case of Potential Expo Visitors
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 이충기 윤설민
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제36권 제2호, 11~29쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.03.31

영문 초록

Forecasting demand for mega-events is prerequisite for event managers since accurate demand is necessary to determine supply for mega-events. In this respect, the purpose of this study is to compare three types of forecasting methods when predicting demand for Expo visitors. These forecasting methods include 1) forecasts with willingness-to-visit(WTV), 2) forecasts with WTV+Gruber index, and 3) forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index. The last two methods reflect feasibility rate. To this end national surveys were conducted to residents of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces using telephone and internet surveys. The results indicate that approximately 25 million Expo visitors were predicted by method 1(forecasts with WTV only), 10 million visitors were predicted by method 2(forecasts with WTV+Gruber index), and 18 million visitors were predicted by method 3(forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index). The findings imply that forecasts with willingness-to-visit only overestimated Expo visitors as compared to such forecasts with feasibility rate as Gruber and Self-confidence indices. Thus, the findings of this study will provide researchers and event managers with appropriate forecasting method when predicting demand for mega-events.

목차

I. 서론

II. 메가 이벤트 수요예측 관련 선행연구 검토

III. 연구방법

IV. 분석결과

V. 결론 및 시사점

참고문헌

키워드

수요예측 방문의사율 실현율 그루버지수 자기확신지수 Demand forecasting Willingness-to-visit Feasibility rate Gruber index Self-confidence index