ARIMA기법을 통한 질병증후군의 관광수요 영향력 연구

• 영문명: Effect of the SARS Illness on Demand for Tourism: An Application of ARIMA Model
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 임은순 손태환
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제31권 제1호, 365~381쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2007.02.28

영문 초록

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) has struck on tourism industry in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the mysterious illness on visitors to South Korea. Authors research suggests a model for measuring the impact of SARS on South Korea's inbound demand during and immediately following the outbreak(March 2003 to July 2003). The forecasts, based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model, are then compared with the actual volume of the visitors arrival. The empirical results indicate that during these affected months, South Korea's international tourism industry was hardly hit by the disease.

목차

I. 서론

II. 연구방법

III. 추정 및 예측

IV. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

사스 외생적 충격 아리마 모형 계절 아리마 모형 SARS external impact ARIMA model seasonal ARIMA model