유가충격이 무역수지에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

• 영문명: Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Trade Balance: New Evidence from Korea-China Trade
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 백정호(Jeongho Baek) 김홍률(Hong-Youl Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제18권 제4호, 111~121쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2022.08.31

영문 초록

Purpose - The primary contribution of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on three measures of South Korea’s trade balance oil, non-oil, and total trade balance with its top trading partner China. Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to investigate how trade balance is influenced by three types of oil price shocks, we used a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). Also, Impulse Response Function (IRF) was used to calculate degree of the trade balance response to the oil price shock. Findings - We discover that aggregate demand shocks have the greatest impact on Korea’s trade balances, while oil supply shocks have negligible impacts. Additionally, the overall impact of the three oil shocks on Korea’s trade balances with China appears to rely on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Research Implications - This outcome explains why the roles of the different shock components of crude oil prices should be accounted for when modeling the nexus between oil price shocks and Korea’s balance of trade

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 분석

Ⅲ. 데이터 및 연구방법

Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

Oil Demand Shocks Oil Supply Shocks South Korea SVAR Trade Balance