창원시 아파트 미분양에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Impact on Unsold Apartment in Changwon City: Focusing on structural changes in 2016
• 발행기관: 한국부동산정책학회
• 저자명: 성주한(Sung, Joo-Han) 윤영식(Youn, Young-Sik)
• 간행물 정보: 『부동산정책연구』제21집 제3호, 93~116쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정책학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.12.20

영문 초록

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact on unsold apartments in Changwon City before and after structural changes, and to examine the difference between the two periods. Through these differences, I would like to add policy suggestions for the management of unsold sales in Changwon City. The effect of this study on unsold apartments in Changwon before and after 2016 is as follows. Prior to 2016, the variable that had the greatest influence on the unsold apartments in Changwon city was the change rate of housing construction permit in Changwon City (GCHAHC), followed by the rate of change in the apartment chonsei price in Changwon City (GCHASCHONSEI). The change rate of housing construction permit in Changwon (GCHHC) has a negative (-) effect, and the performance of housing construction permit in Changwon was concentrated from 2011 to 2013. For this reason, even though there are many Changwon housing construction permit, it was found to have had a negative (-) effect because unsold sales in Changwon were reduced because all of them were satisfied by demand. In addition, the rate of change in apartment chonsei prices (GCHACHONSEI) in Changwon has a negative (-) effect. As the chonsei price rises and the sale price rises, the unsold apartments decreased even if the supply volume increased. Since 2016, the variable that has the greatest influence on the unsold apartments in Changwon City is the change rate of housing construction permits (GCHAHC) in Changwon City, followed by the rate of return on corporate bonds (GCPR). The change rate of housing construction permits of Changwon-si(GCHHC) has a negative (-) effect. Since 2016, demand has declined due to the stagnation of the Changwon city s economy, and the unsold apartments in Changwon city increased because the supply of housing construction completed in Changwon before 2016 continued to stagnate after 2 years and 6 months to 3 years. In addition, the corporate bond yield (GCPR) has a negative (-) effect, and the decline in interest rates was found to increase unsold sales in Changwon. It was found that the decline in interest rates increased the housing price, which increased the performance of the housing construction license in Changwon, thereby increasing unsold sales in Changwon.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 아파트 미분양에 대한 이론적 근거 및 선행연구

Ⅲ. 창원시 아파트 미분양의 현황

Ⅳ. 실증분석

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

Time Series Analysis Changwon City Unsold Apartment Structural Changes The Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) Changwon City