The Impact of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Nga Hong NGUYEN Hat Dang NGUYEN Loan Thi Kim VO Cuong Quoc Khanh TRAN
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.5, 61~68쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.05.30

영문 초록

The exchange rate is considered a tool improving the volume of exports and reducing imports. This paper aims to determine the impact of the exchange rate on exports and imports between Vietnam and the United States in the context of the trade war. The research uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model in the time-series data from 2010:1 to 2020:9. The ARDL’s results support that real exchange rate impact on export and import volumes, but less than the trade war. The trade war helps trade balance increase 0.35%, while the exchange rate increases trade balance 0.191% when the Vietnamese currency devalues 1% in the long run. In the short term, the real exchange rate makes the trade balance decrease. Therefore, the J curve exists between Vietnam and the U.S. The NARDL expresses that the exchange rate is asymmetric both in the short term and the long term. The findings of this study point to two important elements. Firstly, the exchange rate plays a minor role in exports and imports. Secondly, trade war plays a vital role in increasing exports and imports volume between two countries, and the J curve exists between the two countries.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Methodology and Data

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusion

키워드

Exchange Rate Trade War NARDL Vietnam Asymmetric