External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Study of Granger Causality in Developing Countries

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Biqiong ZHANG Muhammad DAWOOD Ahmed AL-ASFOUR
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 7 No.11, 607~617쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.11.30

영문 초록

This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data, Methodology, and Model Specification

4. Results and Discussions

5. Conclusion

References

키워드

External Debt Economic Growth Asia Granger Causality Pooled Mean Group