환율이 경상수지에 미치는 효과

• 영문명: The Effects of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 박갑제(Kapje Park) 강보경(BoKyung Kang)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제16권 제6호, 395~408쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.12.30

영문 초록

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to estimate the dynamic effects of the exchange rate shocks on the trade balance and to determine whether there is a level relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants in the Korea economy. Design/Methodology/Approach - To do that, we adopt the ARDL approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). And then we estimate the impulse response functions of the trade balance due to the unexpected exchange rate based on the estimated error correction model and the traditional VAR models. It is known that the methodology of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) is applicable irrespective of whether the underying regressors are purely I(0), purely I(1), or mutually cointegrated. Findings - Our estimation results shows that after the unexpected appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, the trade balance improves instantaneously and remains positive in the relatively long run. Also, the results of this paper indicates that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance. But there is no J-curve effects in the Korea Economy. Research Implications - Since our estimation results indicate the causal relation between the variables, our results have the implications for the economic policy conducted by the government authority.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구

Ⅲ. 분석방법

Ⅳ. 실증분석결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

Exchange Rate Shocks Impulse Response Function J-curve Effect Trade Balance