미·중 무역마찰과 코로나19로 인한 국내 대두시장 영향분석

• 영문명: The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Dispute and COVID-19 on the Korean Soybean Market
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 순병민(Byung-Min Soon)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제16권 제6호, 519~532쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.12.30

영문 초록

Purpose - This study examines the impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute and COVID-19 on the Korean soybean market. Design/Methodology/Approach - A bilateral trade soybean model considered the Armington and spatial equilibrium approaches is used to analyze scenarios: (1) Removing China’s retaliatory tariff on US soybean without COVID-19, (2) Removing China’s retaliatory tariff on US soybean with COVID-19, and (3) No change in retaliatory tariff on US soybean with COVID-19. These scenario results are compared with the baseline that the U.S.-China trade dispute is in place continuously. Findings - The results show that removing China’s retaliatory tariff decreases domestic soybean imports and rises prices in Korea. Moreover, if we take COVID-19 into account, the decrease in domestic soybean imports is relatively larger and COVID-19 falls the domestic soybean price because of the decrease in domestic consumption. The soybean price impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute along with COVID-19 is larger than the U.S.-China trade dispute without COVID-19 in the absolute difference. If China eliminates tariff on US soybean with COVID-19, then the fall in domestic soybean imports is larger and the price is smaller. Research Implications - This study provides the impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute with COVID-19 on the Korean soybean market. The results showing the price variation from the scenario analysis imply that the Korean agricultural market needs to be monitored because of the response in the agricultural market to shocks. Moreover, the model used for this study gives traders and policy makers a tool to analyze the Korean soybean market.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 및 현황

Ⅲ. 모형 구조 및 가정

Ⅳ. 자료 및 시나리오 설정

Ⅴ. 분석 결과

Ⅵ. 요약 및 시사점

References

키워드

Armington Assumption COVID-19 Soybean Market Spatial Equilibrium Assumption U.S.-China Trade Dispute