Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk

• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: Youngsuk Ko Seok-Min Lee Soyoung Kim Moran Ki Eunok Jung
• 간행물 정보: 『Epidemiology and Health』41, 1~7쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2019.01.01

영문 초록

OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea. METHODS: Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing. RESULTS: The 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediately right after the first EVD case is confirmed. With a 6-day delay in diagnosis of the first case, the median number of patients becomes 7, and the maximum, 20. If the first case is missed and the government intervention is not activated until 2 cases of secondary infection occur, the median number of patients is estimated at 15, and the maximum, at 35. CONCLUSIONS: Timely and rigorous diagnosis is important to reduce the spreading scale of infection when a new communicable disease is inflowed into Korea. Moreover, it is imperative to strengthen the local surveillance system and diagnostic protocols to avoid missing cases of secondary infection.

목차

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

ORCID

REFERENCES

키워드

Ebolavirus Theoretical models Disease outbreaks Stochastic processes Republic of Korea