An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors to Avoid Falling into the Middle Income Trap for Developing Countries

• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: Jun Zhao Seo-Young Lee
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제15권 제5호, 77~87쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2019.10.30

영문 초록

Abstract Purpose - This paper examines the effect of some important economic indicators on the economic growth of developing countries. In particular, this study analyzes 8 economic variables of 9 typical developing countries with annually observed data covering the period from 1996 to 2018 through empirical methods. Design/methodology/approach - The study selects GDP growth rate Per capita as the dependent variable, and selects Consumption Level, Urbanization, Capital Formation, Open Degree of Trade, Population Growth Rate, Human Capital Level, Inflation Rate, and Investment Level as independent variables. The variable selection not only considers structural indicators that affect economic growth, such as consumption, investment, the ratio of trade to GDP, and so on, but also considers the influencing factors on a country s economic growth in a certain historical period, such as urbanization and population, and meanwhile takes such macroeconomic variables as open degree of trade and inflation rate into consideration. The study begins with a test of the stationarity for the concerned variables. The unit root test shows that all concerned variables were stationary. Findings - Empirical evidence using OLS (Ordinary Least Square method) finds that human capital level and investment level are significant for promoting economic growth; open degree of trade and population growth rate are negative for economic growth; and consumption level, urbanization, capital formation, and inflation rate are not significant for either promoting or holding back economic development. Research implications or Originality - This paper provides references for developing countries to avoid falling into the middle income trap, and to enrich the theoretical and practical basis on the study of the middle income trap.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Theoretical Background

Ⅲ. Model and Data

Ⅳ. Empirical Evidence

Ⅴ. Conclusions

키워드

Developing Country Influencing Factors Middle Income Trap