Urban Flood Risk Assessment Considering Climate Change Using Bayesian Probability Statistics and GIS

• 발행기관: 위기관리 이론과 실천
• 저자명: Jung-Eun Kang
• 간행물 정보: 『위기관리 이론과 실천 세미나발표논문집』2018년 위기관리 이론과 실천 세미나발표논문집, 345~345쪽, 전체 1쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 행정학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.12.30

국문 초록

This study assessed urban flood risk using a Bayesian probability statistical method and GIS incorporating a climate change scenario. Risk is assessed based on a combination of hazard probability and its consequences, the degree of impact. Flood probability was calculated on the basis of a Bayesian model and future flood occurrence likelihoods were estimated using climate change scenario data. The flood impacts include human and property damage. Focusing on Seocho-gu, Seoul, the findings are as follows. Current flood probability is high in areas near rivers, as well as low lying and impervious areas, such as Seocho-dong and Banpo-dong. Flood risk areas are predicted to increase by a multiple of 1.3 from 2030 to 2050. Risk assessment results generally show that human risk is relatively high in high-rise residential zones, whereas property risk is high in commercial zones. The magnitude of property damage risk for 2050 increased by 6.6% compared to 2030. The proposed flood risk assessment method provides detailed spatial results that will contribute to decision making for disaster mitigation.