칼로리와 영양 균형을 고려한 식량안보 대응 식량공급 전략 분석

• 영문명: Food Supply Strategies Considering Calorie Intake and Nutrition Balance
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 이춘수(ChoonSoo Lee) 양승룡(Seung-Ryong Yang)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국농식품정책학회 학술대회 논문집』2016년 하계학술대회 논문집, 1~50쪽, 전체 50쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.06.30

영문 초록

This study analyzes how to build a production infra to supply food stably considering calorie intake and nutrition balance. Three types of mathematical models are constructed for this: minimizing procurement cost model, minimizing certainty equivalence model with procurement cost risk premium, and goal programming. Goal programming seeks the attainment of three goals: policy self-sufficiency ratio goal, green-house gases goal, and environment cost of livestock industry goal. Long-term consumption of major food is predicted using prediction model where income, population structure, activity rate of women, urbanization level, and trend are the explanatory variables. Finally this study suggests the level of long-term production infra to supply food stably in 2025 and 2035. About 1,005∼1,523 thousand hectare of cultivation land and 858∼ 1,267 thousand farm houses are required in 2025, and about 941∼1,468 thousand hectare of cultivation land and 821∼1,241 thousand farm houses are required in 2035 for food security. As the total cultivation land and number of farm houses keep decreasing each year by 0.8% and 1.8% respectively, food security remains issue of concern in the longterm. Thus, countermeasures is needed to sustain sufficient cultivation acreage and number of farm houses for food security.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 연구방법

Ⅲ. 자 료

Ⅳ. 식량공급 전략 도출을 위한 최적화 모형 계측 결과

Ⅴ. 식량안보를 위한 장기 식량공급 전략 분석 결과

Ⅵ. 요약 및 결론

키워드

Food Security Food Supply Strategy Food Procurement Risk Mathematical Programming Goal Programming