合理的 期待假說의 適用妥當性에 관한 實證的 硏究

• 영문명: An Empirical Test on Applicability of Rational Expectation Hypothesis
• 발행기관: 호서대학교 사회과학연구소
• 저자명: 朴成輝
• 간행물 정보: 『사회과학연구』제5집 제1호, 251~262쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 사회과학일반
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1986.12.31

영문 초록

An empirical research is implemented on the question whether the rational expectation hypotehsis is applicable to price expectation of producer in Korean agriculture, where market information is transmitted in less efficient manner. Demand and supply functions of pork are estimated for quarterly data from 1976 III to 1984 IV by 3SLS method under different hypothesis of expectation formation; static expectation, extrapolative expectation(ARIMA), adaptive expectation, and rational expectation. The results of prediction test of the models by different expectation hypothesis show that the price by rational expection hypothesis is the least efficient in prediction of pork price in comparison with other estimate on the basis of RMSE and Theil coefficient. On the other hand the expected price by the adaptive expectation hypothesis is most accurate in prediction among the four predictions.

목차

Ⅰ. 序論

Ⅱ. 農産物需給模型의 設定

Ⅲ. 合理的 期待假說의 妥當性檢證

Ⅳ. 結論

參考文獻

Abstract