신호접근법에 의한 한국의 해운시장 위기 지표 분석

• 영문명: An Analysis on Crisis Indices of Shipping Markets in Korea Based on the Signals Approach
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 이재규(Jae-Kyu Lee) 김일수(Il-Soo Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제12권 제5호, 485~496쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.10.30

영문 초록

The economic recession has contributed a lot to the shipping market crisis in Korea. When a financial crisis breaks out, crisis indices become useful primarily in shipping markets. Thus, proposing crisis indices predicting the market crisis more accurately means. The purpose of this study is to find crisis indices in shipping markets in Korea using the signals approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The signals approach was not originally designed to predict the crisis of shipping markets. However, as the approach is an efficient method to find out indices of an economic crisis, it is assumed to be also useful in predicting risks of shipping markets in Korea. The history of Korea shipping markets is comparatively short compared to those of advanced countries, and the former has its own characteristics. We conduct the analysis of crisis indices of those markets using our revised signals approach. These two approaches are compared. Finally, this study shows that our revised signals approach improved the predictability of the shipping market crisis in Korea.

키워드

Crisis Indices Predictability Shipping Markets Signals Approach