Criminal Convictions and Labor Market Outcomes in Young Men: A Matching Analysis with U.S. Data

• 영문명: 젊은 층의 범죄전력과 노동시장 성과: 미국자료를 이용한 매칭분석
• 발행기관: 한국경제통상학회
• 저자명: 제레미아 리치(Jeremiah Richey)
• 간행물 정보: 『경제연구』經濟硏究 第32卷 第2號, 169~187쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.05.31

국문 초록

본 논문은 1997년 NLSY(National Longitudinal Survey of Youth)의 2006년 자료를 이용하여 젊은 층 남성의 소득에 있어서 범죄전력의 인과관계를 고찰하는 논문이다. 관심대상인 처리효과(treatment effcet, 특히 대상자에 대한 평균처리효과)를 propensity score matching 알고리듬을 사용하여 추정하였다. 매칭은 가장 가까운 인근 대 상에 대한 매칭 기법과 가장 가까운 K 인근대상에 대한 매칭 기법을 사용하였다. 두 알고리듬 모두 추정된 ATT가 일반 회귀분석에서 추정되는 -$3.300보다 낮은 -2.200의 추정치를 제공하였다.

영문 초록

This paper investigates the causal effect of criminal convictions on earnings in young men using data from the 2006 wave of the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 1997). The treatment effect of interest (the average treatment effect on the treated) is estimated using a propensity score matching algorithm. Matching is done with both a nearest neighbor and a nearest K neighbor matching technique. The main assumption is that of conditional independence of potential outcomes and treatment and is ensured by controlling for a large array of personal and family characteristics. Both matching algorithms lead to an estimated ATT of about -$2,200 which is markedly lower than estimates from standard regressions which yield an effect of -$3,300. These results align well with previous findings investigating older cohorts and is in contrast to anticipated declines in the effect given the surge in the correctional populations. An increase in the discriminated group should have acted to reduce the penalty and the lack of a decline suggests perhaps the proportion of discriminating firms has also increased which might reflect a social shift in the perception of having a criminal record. An additional analysis with matching preprocessing and subclassified regression suggest there is heterogeneity in the effect with those with low probability of convictions having effects in the range of -$4,000 to -$4,500 while those with high probability of convictions having positive (insignificant) effects.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Framework

Ⅲ. Data

Ⅳ. Results

Ⅴ. Conclusion

References

국문요약

키워드

범죄전력 매칭 성향분석 criminal convictions propensity score matching