Estimation of the Frequency of Intravenous Drug Users in Hamadan City, Iran, Using the Capture-recapture Method

• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: Salman Khazaei Jalal Poorolajal Hossein Mahjub Nader Esmailnasab Mohammad Mirzaei
• 간행물 정보: 『Epidemiology and Health』34, 30~35쪽, 전체 6쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.01.25

영문 초록

OBJECTIVES: The number of illicit drug users is prone to underestimation. This study aimed to use the capture-recapture method as a statistical procedure for measuring the prevalence of intravenous drug users (IDUs) by estimating the number of unknown IDUs not registered by any of the registry centers. METHODS: This study was conducted in Hamadan City, the west of Iran, in 2012. Three incomplete data sources of IDUs, with partial overlapping data, were assessed including: (a) Volunteer Counseling and Testing Centers(VCTCs); (b) Drop in Centers (DICs); and (c) Outreach Teams (ORTs). A log-linear model was applied for the analysis of three-sample capture-recapture results. Two information criteria were used for model selection including Akaike’s Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. RESULTS: Out of 1,478 IDUs registered by three centers, 48% were identified by VCTCs, 32% by DICs, and 20% by ORTs. After exclusion of duplicates, 1,369 IDUs remained. According to our findings, there were 9,964 (95% CI, 6,088 to 17,636) IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Hence, the real number of IDUs is expected to be 11,333. Based on these findings, the overall completeness of the three data sources was around 12% (95% CI, 7% to 18%). CONCLUSION: There was a considerable number of IDUs not identified by any of the centers. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful and practical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the results must be interpreted with caution.

목차

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

REFERENCES

키워드

Capture-recapture Log-linear models Poisson regression Intravenous drug users Iran