지향지-배후지 개념을 활용한 컨테이너 물동량 예측 모형에 대한 실증연구

• 영문명: An Empirical Study on the Container Traffic Forecasting Model Using Hinterland-foreland Concept
• 발행기관: 한국국제상학회
• 저자명: 노승혁(Seung-hyuk Roh) 김철민(Chul-min Kim) 김기태(Ki-tae Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『국제상학』國際商學 第26卷 第2號, 49~71쪽, 전체 23쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.06.30

영문 초록

The port development plan is very important in the viewpoint of efficient resource allocation and international trade support. The basis of the port development plan is a right forecasting for cargo traffic of the each port. There are various forecasting approaches for cargo traffic. We think the more refined forecasting method is needed. In this paper, We try to suggest a cargo traffic forecasting model using hinterland-foreland concept. The suggested model is a regression analysis model including four independent variables : port’s general reliability, port’s handling capacity, inland transportation cost and marine transportation distance. In the result of analysis, We find empirically that First, port’s general reliability, inland transportation cost and marine transportation distance can explain the cargo traffic of the each port to some degree. Second, hinterland and foreland concept can be a factor for selecting a port. Third, inland transportation cost explains cargo flow well more than marine transportation distance in Korea. whose ports have a similar marine transportation distance. Fourth, the national scaled port development allows a hinterland to select a port considering the inland transportation cost than before. Fifth, even if port’s reliability is the most important factor influencing each port’s cargo traffic, hinterland-foreland is one factor influencing the traffic too.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. 연구배경과 목적

Ⅱ. 항만물동량 영향요인의 이론적 검토

Ⅲ. 배후지 지향지 관점의 물동량 변화 분석

Ⅳ. 결론과 향후 연구과제

참고 문헌

키워드

Hinterland Foreland Forecasting Methods Marine Transportation