Performance Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Demand of Ductile Pipe

• 발행기관: 한국상품학회
• 저자명: Kim Young-il
• 간행물 정보: 『상품학연구』제29권 제2호, 51~57쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2011.03.30

영문 초록

Since there have been some structural change in pipe industry, many company faced the issue that the oldforecasting model for the demand of ductile pipe needed to be updated. One of major company in pipe industry provided the demand for ductile pipe information. The study built several time series forecasting models based on the provided data and found the best model to forecasting demand for ductile pipe in one year ahead. Time series regression model with the first order autocorrelation in error term, seasonal decomposition model, and Box-Jenkins model have been built. Based on model adequacy criteria, the study found the time series regression model with first order autocorrelation in error term performed better than other considered forecasting models.

목차

Ⅰ. Background of Study Motivation

Ⅱ. Approach

Ⅲ. Comparison

Ⅳ. Result

Ⅴ. Conclusion

References

키워드

time series regression seasonality decomposition ARMA