수도권 성장관리를 위한 시나리오 플래닝 (Scenario Planning) 기법의 활용방안에 관한 연구

• 영문명: Application of Scenario Planning for Urban Growth Management of Seoul Metropolitan Area
• 발행기관: 안양대학교 수도권발전연구소
• 저자명: 한홍구 장준호
• 간행물 정보: 『수도권연구』제7호, 103~131쪽, 전체 29쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.11.30

영문 초록

For urban growth management, we need to forecast and evaluate the volume and location of future developments. Scenario planning is one of the most effective planning tools for the forecast and evaluation. Scenario planning is also helpful as it can diminish the complexity and uncertainty of future, and consider a few plausible futures together by modeling reasonable scenarios. This study aims to draw urban growth scenarios for Seoul metropolitan area in 2025, and to forecast land use changes by scenarios. In conclusion, four scenarios are drawn through the phased processing model and experts interview. The scenarios are divided depending on the difference of population growth pattern or trends, and the spatial density of developments. Urban growth forecasting models are constructed into two types: macro and micro scale, so that they can forecast future growth by scenarios. The macro scale model uses a transformed Shift-Share model using population and employment of 2025(KOSTAT), land use raster map and multinomial logit model. This study suggests pragmatic strategies depending on each of scenarios through literature study on the issues and problems of the existing urban growth management tools, so that they can help forthcoming studies or relevant efforts. This study is meaningful as the following reasons. First, it introduces scenario planning as a growth management tool for Seoul metropolitan area, and suggests possible application forms. Second, this study adopts processing model and establishes four scenarios so as to pragmatically help the Seoul metropolitan area's growth management plans. Third, this study suggests forecasted land use changes in the future based on the each of the four scenarios. They can provide fundamental information also helpful to the plans. Lastly, this study suggests political or pragmatic strategies to actualize or systemize the growth management.

목차

I. 서 론

II. 성장관리와 시나리오 플래닝의 이론적 고찰

III. 수도권 성장관리의 문제점 및 시나리오 플래닝의 필요성

IV. 수도권 성장관리 시나리오 설정 및 실천적 수단

V. 결 론

키워드

growth management scenarios planning growth management scenario planning urban growth forecasting practical policies Seoul metropolitan area