- 영문명
- A Study on Dynamic Relationship between Housing Fund Demand and Macroeconomic Variables
- 발행기관
- 한국부동산학회
- 저자명
- 정재호(Chung Jae Ho) 박덕분(Park Duck Bun)
- 간행물 정보
- 『부동산학보』不動産學報 第28輯, 162~178쪽, 전체 17쪽
- 주제분류
- 경제경영 > 경제학
- 파일형태
- 발행일자
- 2006.12.01
국문 초록
영문 초록
1. CONTENTS
(1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this article is to analyze economic influences of macroeconomic indexes on housing fund demand and try to figure out stable housing policy.
(2) RESEARCH METHOD
Literature reviews are researched and dynamic approach such as, casuality test, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition are used.
(3) RESEARCH RESULTS
The dynamic analyses prove that Granger causality analysis shows that there is negative causal relation between consumer price index and housing fund loan. Before IMF crisis, there is mutual causality between KOSPI and housing fund loan and one-side causality after IMF crisis. There is one-side causality between interest rate of housing fund loan and corporate bonds earning rate only after IMF crisis. Unemployment rate shows one-side causality during whole periods.
Second, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, show that housing fund loan interest rate is the most significant variable for whole period. Before IMF crisis, consumer price index is the most significant variable and housing fund loan interest rate is most significant after IMF crisis. The impact of 4 variables, i.e. GDP, consumer price, housing fund loan interest rate and KOSPI, has slightly increased after IMF crisis.
2. RESULTS
Our empirical study concludes that the impact of macroeconomic indexes has increased relatively after IMF crisis. Housing fund loan interest rate is the most significant macroeconomic index. The rest macroeconomic variables have statistical significance too. It is necessary to consider any important macroeconomic changes for better stable housing policy.
(1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this article is to analyze economic influences of macroeconomic indexes on housing fund demand and try to figure out stable housing policy.
(2) RESEARCH METHOD
Literature reviews are researched and dynamic approach such as, casuality test, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition are used.
(3) RESEARCH RESULTS
The dynamic analyses prove that Granger causality analysis shows that there is negative causal relation between consumer price index and housing fund loan. Before IMF crisis, there is mutual causality between KOSPI and housing fund loan and one-side causality after IMF crisis. There is one-side causality between interest rate of housing fund loan and corporate bonds earning rate only after IMF crisis. Unemployment rate shows one-side causality during whole periods.
Second, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, show that housing fund loan interest rate is the most significant variable for whole period. Before IMF crisis, consumer price index is the most significant variable and housing fund loan interest rate is most significant after IMF crisis. The impact of 4 variables, i.e. GDP, consumer price, housing fund loan interest rate and KOSPI, has slightly increased after IMF crisis.
2. RESULTS
Our empirical study concludes that the impact of macroeconomic indexes has increased relatively after IMF crisis. Housing fund loan interest rate is the most significant macroeconomic index. The rest macroeconomic variables have statistical significance too. It is necessary to consider any important macroeconomic changes for better stable housing policy.
목차
ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 주택금융 및 주택수급관련 선행 연구
Ⅲ. 주택금융수요와 거시경제변수간의 상관관계분석
Ⅳ. 주택금융수요와 거시경제변수간 동태적 실증분석
Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
參考文獻
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 주택금융 및 주택수급관련 선행 연구
Ⅲ. 주택금융수요와 거시경제변수간의 상관관계분석
Ⅳ. 주택금융수요와 거시경제변수간 동태적 실증분석
Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
參考文獻
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