China’s CPTPP Accession: Economic Gains and Trade Risks

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Zhigao Hu Jiayi Zhang Jing Li
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제40권 제4호, 543~566쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.12.31

국문 초록

This study evaluates the economic implications of China’s potential accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Results reveal that CPTPP membership would generally boost import-export growth rates across most industries, with significant benefits for agriculture, textiles, papermaking, and minerals, whereas extraction, petrochemicals, automotive, steel, machinery, and electronics sectors gain less. The CPTPP induces trade diversion, enhancing China’s GDP and social welfare under normal conditions, but such gains diminish under trade sanctions. While joining the CPTPP improves trade terms and expands surplus in standard scenarios, sanctions could reverse these outcomes. Consequently, China should pursue CPTPP integration while proactively addressing sanctions risks to minimize adverse effects.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Literature Review

III. CPTPP and the Current Situation of China’s Foreign Trade

IV. Model and Data

V. Simulation Results Analysis

VI. Conclusions and Recommendations

References

키워드

GTAP Model CPTPP Tariff Barriers Non-Tariff Barriers Trade Sanctions