India-MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement: An Ex-Post Evaluation under Modern Gravity Framework

• 발행기관: 세종대학교 경제통합연구소
• 저자명: Mamta Kumari
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of Economic Integration』제40권 제2호, 367~390쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2025.05.31

국문 초록

Against the backdrop of expanding the tariff concession list of 450 products to 1500-2000 under India - Southern Common Market Preferential Trade Agreement (India-MERCOSUR PTA), the study analyses the effects of the India-MERCOSUR PTA on the trade flows of member states. The study employs structural gravity model framework to estimate total bilateral, unilateral, and heterogenous trade effects of this PTA. The results indicate that bilateral trade between India and MERCOSUR countries have increased by 63% at the expense of trade diversion from domestic sales. The study also provides evidence that PTA significantly increased India’s trade with non-MERCOSUR countries by 90%. In addition, the hypothesis of heterogeneity effects of PTA across each of its member countries and the direction of trade is confirmed by the estimates. Such empirical evidence of large average impacts on goods trade gives significant boost to the ongoing negotiations for further deepening the existing trade agreement.

목차

I. Introduction

II. Theoretical Framework and Literature Review

III. Methodology and Data

IV. Empirical Findings

V. Conclusion, Policy Implications and Scope for Future Research

References

키워드

Gravity Model Unilateral Effects Trade Integration India MERCOSUR Panel Data