파괴확률을 활용한 항 외곽시설 Hybrid 설계법에 관한 제언

• 영문명: Proposal on Hybrid Design Method of Outer Port Facilities Using Failure Probability
• 발행기관: 한국연안방재학회
• 저자명: 조용준(Yong Jun Cho)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국연안방재학회지』제8권 제4호, 237~253쪽, 전체 17쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 사회과학일반
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.10.31

영문 초록

Lately, many efforts have been made to address the problem concerned with deterministic design using reliability-based design, and the research results are significant. However, there is considerable confusion in the design practice regarding how to use failure probability, the main output of reliability-based design. In this rationale, this study aims to develop a robust hybrid deterministic design method for outer port facilities using the failure probability. To this end, we first reviewed the design process of Eulleungdo East Breakwater, some of which were recently damaged. It was revealed that the exceeding probability of design wave height of 5.2 m was merely 0.65, which corresponds to a return period of 1.53 years, showing that the outer port facilities of Ulleungdo were considerably underdesigned. In an effort to find an alternative that can overcome the limitations of the deterministic design method, which is highly likely to involve subjective judgment, a Level III reliability design was carried out. In doing so, tri-modal Gaussian wave slope distribution was used as a probabilistic model for wave slope. Numerical results show that failure probability was excessively estimated in the Gaussian distribution, and even if the TTP size was slightly reduced, the failure probability increased rapidly. Although failure probability is sensitive to the change in nominal diameter, there is a gradually increasing zone where the failure probability change rapidly decreases when the nominal diameter is larger than the critical value. The presence of a Gradually Increasing Zone mentioned above implies that it is uneconomical and has no physical background to adjust the nominal diameter to be larger than the critical value. Therefore, it can be easily conceived that outer port facility design should be performed using a failure probability provided by Level III reliability-based design.

목차

1. 서론

2. 해양환경

3. Van der Meer식에 준거한 결정론적 설계

4. Level III 신뢰성 설계

5. 결론

키워드

Failure probability Outer port facilities Hybrid design method Tri-modal Gaussian wave slope distribution Level III reliability-based design