글로벌 트렌드 2040: 코로나 이후, 다시 쓰는 경쟁 구도(영어)

미 국가정보위원회 지음

투나미스 2021년 05월 20일 출간

작품소개

책소개

What is
Global Trends?

Every four years since 1997, the National Intelligence Council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior US leaders think and plan for the longer term. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the administration of a newly elected US President, but Global Trends increasingly has served to foster discussions about the future with people around the world. We believe these global consultations, both in preparing the paper and sharing the results, help the NIC and broader US Government learn from perspectives beyond the United States and are useful in sparkling discussions about key assumptions, priorities, and choices.

목차

TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD
INTRODUCTION
| KEY THEMES
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
| THE COVID-19 FACTOR: EXPANDING UNCERTAINTY

STRUCTURAL FORCES
| DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
| Future Global Health Challenges
| ENVIRONMENT
| ECONOMICS
| TECHNOLOGY

EMERGING DYNAMICS
| SOCIETAL: DISILLUSIONED, INFORMED, AND DIVIDED
| STATE: TENSIONS, TURBULENCE, AND TRANSFORMATION
| INTERNATIONAL: MORE CONTESTED, UNCERTAIN, AND CONFLICT PRONE
| The Future of Terrorism: Diverse Actors, Fraying International Efforts

SCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHARTING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY
| RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES
| A WORLD ADRIFT
| COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE
| SEPARATE SILOS
| TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION

REGIONAL FORECASTS
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

책 속으로

During the past year, the Covid-19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility and demonstrated the inherent risks of high levels of interdependence. In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to the disruptions from new technologies and financial crises. These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states, and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce greater contestation at every level.

In this more contested world, communities are increasingly fractured as people seek security with like-minded groups based on established and newly prominent identities; states of all types and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of more connected, more urban, and more empowered populations; and the international system is more competitive―shaped in part by challenges from a rising China―and at greater risk of conflict as states and nonstate actors exploit new sources of power and erode longstanding norms and institutions that have provided some stability in past decades. These dynamics are not fixed in perpetuity, however, and we envision a variety of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040―from a democratic renaissance to a transformation in global cooperation spurred by shared tragedy―depending on how these dynamics interact and human choices along the way.

출판사 서평

How we do
Global Trends?

The NIC Global Trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the US government and around the world. We reviewed key assumptions and trends, starting with an examination of regions that was aggregated to identify broader global dynamics. We explored the implications of various trends and discontinuities over the near term (5 years) and long term (20 years). We made extensive use of analytic simulations to explore future trajectories and developed multiple scenarios to describe how key uncertainties and emerging trends might combine to produce alternative futures.

작가정보

저자(글) 미 국가정보위원회

What is the National Intelligence Council?The National Intelligence Council (NIC) serves as the US Intelligence Community's center for the long-term strategic analysis. Since 1979, the NIC has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities―as well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers, drawn from government, academia, and the private sector, are the IC's senior substantive experts on a range of issues and work under the auspices of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The NIC covers the regions of the world as well as functional topics, such as economics, security, technology, cyber, terrorism, and the environment. The NIC coordinates Intelligence Community support for US policy deliberations while producing papers and formal National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on critical national security questions.